Bitcoin’s $100,000 Floor: Standard Chartered Analyst Declares ‘Never Again’ Amid Shifting Market Dynamics
Following a recent misstep in predicting a “near-certain” dip below $100,000 last weekend, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, has delivered a striking new forecast for Bitcoin (BTC). Kendrick now asserts that if the current positive political and economic momentum persists through the weekend, the flagship cryptocurrency might “never” again trade below the coveted $100,000 mark.
A Paradigm Shift: From Dip to Permanent Floor
Kendrick’s updated outlook signals a profound shift in market sentiment. What was once seen as an inevitable correction is now viewed as a potential foundation for enduring growth. This bullish reversal is underpinned by several converging factors, from thawing geopolitical tensions to evolving investment behaviors.
Key Catalysts Driving Bitcoin’s Ascent
Easing US-China Trade Tensions Boost Risk Assets
A significant driver behind the newfound optimism stems from a positive turn in US-China trade negotiations. According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Sunday remarks, China is reportedly considering a one-year delay on rare earth export restrictions and a resumption of US soybean imports. In return, the US would temporarily suspend its proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. This de-escalation of trade friction has broadly invigorated confidence in risk assets across global markets, with Bitcoin being a prime beneficiary.
Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Signals Ebbing Panic
Market confidence is further evidenced by the Bitcoin-Gold Ratio, which has rebounded to levels seen before October 10th. Kendrick views this metric as crucial for assessing overall market sentiment.
“I will be closely watching whether this ratio can break above 30,” Kendrick stated. “Once it breaks, it will signify the official lifting of market panic.”
ETF Flows: The New Dominator, Halving Cycle’s Demise
Perhaps the most compelling argument for Bitcoin’s sustained upward trajectory lies in the potential for significant capital shifts into spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Kendrick highlighted substantial outflows from US gold ETFs, totaling over $2 billion from last Wednesday to Friday alone. He posits that even a fraction of this capital redirecting into Bitcoin ETFs would be a powerful indicator of renewed investor confidence.
Kendrick also noted that Bitcoin ETFs have lagged behind gold ETFs in recent weeks in terms of attracting funds, suggesting a ripe opportunity for a “catch-up rally.” Furthermore, a new all-time high for Bitcoin, he argues, would be the “strongest confirmation signal” that marks the end of an era.
“I believe the ‘halving cycle theory’ is dead; ETF capital flows are the dominant force,” Kendrick boldly declared. “But this still requires further confirmation of actual market trends to convince everyone.”
This perspective suggests that institutional adoption and accessible investment vehicles like ETFs are now far more influential than the pre-programmed supply shocks of halving events.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds and Tech Earnings Watch
Beyond specific crypto market dynamics, broader macroeconomic factors are also at play. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week is widely anticipated to result in another 25 basis point interest rate cut. Kendrick sees this as a positive signal for Bitcoin, especially amidst discussions surrounding the next Fed Chair.
Adding another layer of market activity, this week is also “super earnings week” for US tech stocks. Five of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants are slated to release their financial results, alongside key crypto-centric companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase.
The Bold Conclusion: A New Era for Bitcoin?
Geoffrey Kendrick’s conclusion is unequivocal: “If everything goes smoothly this week, Bitcoin may ‘never’ fall below $100,000 again.” This assertive forecast, coming from a leading voice at a major financial institution, underscores a growing conviction in Bitcoin’s maturation as a mainstream asset, increasingly insulated by institutional demand and favorable market conditions.
Disclaimer
This article is provided for informational purposes only. All content and opinions expressed herein are for reference and do not constitute investment advice. They do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of the author or any associated entities. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and make independent investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher shall be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses incurred from investment transactions based on this information.
