Unpacking Bitcoin’s ‘Silent IPO’: Why Current Consolidation Isn’t What You Think

For many staunch Bitcoin enthusiasts, the past few months have been a test of patience, watching U.S. stocks and gold surge to new all-time highs while Bitcoin remains in a “slumber,” seemingly stuck in a protracted sideways trend. This stagnant price action has naturally led to frustration and a nagging question: “Could everyone have misjudged the market?” This profound query was recently posed by Jordi Visser, a veteran traditional finance (TradFi) asset manager, in a thought-provoking article that has since garnered over 2.3 million views.

In his widely circulated piece, titled “Bitcoin’s Silent IPO: Why This Consolidation Isn’t What You Think,” Visser presents an intriguing and contrarian perspective. He argues that Bitcoin’s current sideways movement is not a precursor to a bear market, but rather a crucial process of “ownership reallocation”—a “Silent IPO” in disguise.

The Facebook IPO Playbook: A Familiar Script

Visser contends that while Bitcoin has never undergone a traditional Initial Public Offering (IPO), the forces currently suppressing its price appreciation bear a striking resemblance to the factors that often lead to subdued performance for new stocks after their public listing.

He highlights that in traditional financial markets, particularly within the tech sector, the months following an IPO frequently become a critical “liquidity feast”:

Early investors took significant risks, and if the investment succeeded, they deserved substantial returns. But ultimately and most importantly, they need to realize profits, they need liquidity, they need to exit the market, and they need to diversify their risks.

Consider the case of Facebook (now Meta) in its 2012 IPO. The company raised $16 billion at an offering price of $38 per share, achieving an astonishing valuation of $104 billion. Yet, within a year, the stock plummeted by 30%, triggering widespread criticism and doubts about Mark Zuckerberg’s leadership. [IMAGE-PLACEHOLDER-1]

Visser suggests that this wasn’t so much a failure on Zuckerberg’s part, but rather early investors strategically leveraging the liquidity provided by the public market to cash in on life-changing profits.

The Mystery of the Sideways Grind: Patient Distribution by Whales

Crucially, Visser emphasizes that these early investors don’t “dump” their holdings all at once:

They methodically distribute their holdings. They are cautious. They don’t want to crash the price. They are patient. They have waited years for this moment, what’s a few more months?

He describes this process as ultimately leading to a “sideways trend that drives everyone crazy.” Sound familiar? Visser then pivots directly to Bitcoin, noting:

On-chain data tells a clear story… ‘Ancient coins’ that haven’t moved in years, some dormant since Bitcoin’s price was in the double digits, are now suddenly active.

Visser explains that the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the entry of institutional players, and a more favorable regulatory environment have collectively created a “post-IPO-like” liquidity environment for early Bitcoin believers. This new market maturity offers an unprecedented and opportune moment for these long-term holders to exit without causing market chaos.

For many years, the market simply couldn’t absorb such massive selling pressure. Imagine selling $100 million worth of Bitcoin in 2015? You’d crash the price. Trying to sell $1 billion in 2019? Equally impossible.

But now, ETFs provide a continuous ‘institutional bid,’ large corporations are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, and even sovereign wealth funds are entering. The market is finally mature enough to ‘absorb early holdings without causing chaos’.

Visser underscores that early Bitcoin holders are patiently and methodically exiting their positions. “They don’t want to crash the price; they are simply transferring ownership steadily and strategically.” This perfectly explains Bitcoin’s “grinding sideways” movement—each rebound is fleeting, quickly followed by a retreat. [IMAGE-PLACEHOLDER-2]

Not a Bear Market, But a Reallocation of Ownership

In conclusion, Jordi Visser asserts that the current consolidation phase should by no means be labeled a “bear market.” Instead, it is a significant “reallocation of ownership,” transferring Bitcoin from the hands of “ancient whales” to institutional players.

From a long-term perspective, this is an undeniably bullish development—though the process itself tends to be prolonged. In traditional financial markets, such “distribution periods” typically span 6 to 18 months. Even in the faster-paced cryptocurrency market, Visser anticipates this sideways trend could persist for several more months.

Market sentiment will only improve after the distribution ends. People are frustrated because they don’t understand the current phase. They expect Bitcoin to ‘catch up’ and worry about the 4-year halving cycle failing.

But please be patient—once the selling pressure is gradually absorbed, and institutional buying soaks up the supply from OGs (early holders), Bitcoin’s path upward will become clear again.