Bitcoin Teeters on the Brink: CryptoQuant Warns of Potential Drop to $72,000 Amidst Market Downturn

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has issued a stark warning: should Bitcoin fail to maintain the crucial $100,000 psychological barrier, the cryptocurrency could experience a significant downturn, potentially plummeting to $72,000 before the year’s end.

The $100,000 Battleground: A Key Support Level Under Threat

The flagship cryptocurrency has faced intense pressure, with CoinGecko data revealing that Bitcoin breached the $100,000 mark twice in the early hours of today, November 5th. It touched a low of $99,075.89, a level not seen since May of this year. While opportunistic “buy the dip” sentiment helped to pull the price back, narrowly securing this vital support, Bitcoin remains volatile. As of writing, Bitcoin has recovered slightly to trade around $101,000, but still reflects a 5.4% decline over the past 24 hours.

CryptoQuant’s Dire Forecast: A Return to “Deep Bear” Territory

Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, articulated the severity of the situation:

“If Bitcoin fails to hold the $100,000 area and breaks downwards, the risk of retesting $72,000 will significantly increase within the next 1 to 2 months.”

Moreno attributes this current downward trend to a persistent deterioration in market demand, stemming from the monumental liquidation event on October 10th. This unprecedented “crypto wipeout” saw over $20 billion in leveraged positions eradicated, marking the largest single liquidation cascade in crypto history.

“Since then, Bitcoin’s spot buying has been consistently shrinking. Demand from US investors for Bitcoin has also cooled down, evidenced by continuous ETF outflows and the Coinbase premium turning into a discount,” Moreno explained. “Overall, the crypto market has been in a bear market since early October. CryptoQuant’s ‘Bull Market Score’ currently stands at a mere 20 points, placing it firmly in the ‘deep bear’ zone.”

Massive Liquidations Signal Market Distress

Further underscoring the market’s fragility, CoinGlass data indicates that the cryptocurrency derivatives market experienced a staggering $2.097 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours. A substantial portion, over $1.68 billion, comprised long positions forcibly closed, impacting more than 489,000 traders.

Expert Insights: Macro Headwinds and Long-Term Value

Standard Chartered’s Mixed Signals

Last month, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, had already warned that a drop below $100,000 for Bitcoin was “almost inevitable” following the October 10th liquidation. However, he later offered a more optimistic outlook, suggesting that improved macroeconomic conditions and a more stable geopolitical environment, particularly favorable progress in US-China trade talks, could mean Bitcoin “may never fall below $100,000 again.”

Hashdex: Macro Factors and Normal Profit-Taking

Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at crypto asset management firm Hashdex, provided additional context for the current market sentiment:

“Recent investor speculation that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might not cut interest rates this year, coupled with ongoing concerns about tariffs, credit market conditions, and stock market valuations, have all contributed to the market downturn.”

“Bitcoin’s recent price movements have also been influenced by long-term holders taking profits, which is a normal phenomenon as the asset matures and its price appreciates.”

Despite the immediate price concerns, O’Shea emphasized that while $100,000 is a significant “psychological barrier,” a breach of this level would not undermine Bitcoin’s fundamental long-term investment value.

“ETF capital flows and corporate adoption trends remain robust this year, with traditional financial institutions continuously building out digital asset infrastructure and products,” O’Shea highlighted. “Furthermore, market liquidity is expected to improve once the Federal Reserve concludes its quantitative tightening (QT) program. These structural factors bolster our conviction that Bitcoin still has the potential to achieve new all-time highs in the coming months.”