Morgan Stanley strategists are advising investors to seize the current “autumn harvest” in the cryptocurrency market, urging profit-taking in anticipation of an impending “crypto winter.” This guidance comes as the market navigates what they describe as the “autumn phase” of Bitcoin’s established four-year cycle.
In a recent episode of their insightful “Crypto Goes Mainstream” podcast, Denny Galindo, Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, articulated a maturing Wall Street perspective on Bitcoin’s market rhythm. Drawing parallels to seasonal shifts, Galindo highlighted historical data suggesting a recurring “three-up, one-down” pattern in Bitcoin’s price cycles.
“We are in the autumn harvest period. Autumn is the season for harvest, so this is when you should take profits. But the market’s focus is, how long will this autumn last? And when will the next winter come?”
Galindo’s timely “autumn harvest” analogy emerged shortly after Bitcoin experienced a significant dip, falling below $99,000 on November 5th. This particular decline was notable as it breached a critical long-term technical indicator: the 365-day moving average, a widely recognized bearish signal, according to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant.
Echoing this sentiment, Andri Fauzan Adziima, an analyst at Bitrue, characterized the recent downturn as “officially marking the arrival of a technical bear market.” Further compounding the short-term outlook, crypto market maker Wintermute observed a stagnation in the three primary drivers of market liquidity: stablecoins, cryptocurrency ETFs, and crypto reserve companies. This indicates a noticeable cooling in capital inflow momentum, contributing to increased market volatility.
Institutional Confidence Remains Resilient Amidst Short-Term Turbulence
Despite these immediate market jitters, institutional investors are maintaining a remarkably optimistic long-term view. Michael Cyprys, Head of US Brokerage & Asset Management within Morgan Stanley Research, noted in the podcast that an increasing number of institutions are integrating Bitcoin into their diversified investment portfolios.
“Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold, or a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.”
Cyprys emphasized that the advent of Bitcoin spot ETFs has dramatically lowered the barrier to entry for large-scale investors. He explained that while major investors typically adopt new assets slowly due to complex internal processes, risk committees, and long-term investment mandates, the maturation of regulatory frameworks and ETF infrastructure has significantly streamlined access. This, in turn, is continuously boosting adoption rates.
Highlighting the tangible impact, Michael Cyprys pointed out that both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have collectively attracted billions of dollars in assets under management. According to data from SoSoValue, the total net assets for US spot Bitcoin ETFs now exceed an impressive $137 billion, while Ethereum spot ETFs command a substantial $22.4 billion.
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