Bitcoin’s Weakest November in 7 Years: A Strategic Opportunity for Long-Term Investors?

Bitcoin is poised to record its weakest November performance in nearly seven years, yet a consensus is emerging among analysts: this sharp decline might actually be a prime accumulation opportunity. Whispers suggest long-term capital is quietly preparing its re-entry, potentially laying the groundwork for a robust market surge in 2026.

“While the cryptocurrency market is set to conclude November with a downturn, this period of capitulation-style selling presents discerning investors with a strategic chance to re-establish positions,” stated Nick Ruck, Research Director at LVRG.

Ruck further emphasized that the market has largely purged “over-leveraged speculators” and “unsustainable projects,” thereby clearing the path for genuine long-term buyers. This, he argues, is the optimal foundation for the upcoming year’s market dynamics.

According to CoinGecko market data, Bitcoin has experienced a 16.86% decline since the beginning of November, currently trading around $91,500. This drop approaches the 17.3% decrease observed in November 2019.

Historically, Bitcoin’s most challenging November occurred in 2018, witnessing a significant 36.5% plunge. More recently, November 2022 also closed in the red with a 16.2% monthly decline.

Cryptocurrency educator Sumit Kapoor noted, “November typically stands as one of Bitcoin’s stronger performing months.” However, he pointed out that subdued trading activity around the Thanksgiving holiday, coupled with limited trading days remaining, virtually guarantees this November will be its most lackluster since 2018. Kapoor also issued a cautionary note: historical market trends suggest that a negative November close for Bitcoin often foreshadows an uninspiring performance in December.

Conversely, Justin d’Anethan, Head of Research at private market consultancy Arctic Digital, offered a distinct perspective. He highlighted that most crypto investors are well-versed in Bitcoin’s “4-year market cycle,” which traditionally culminates in a robust fourth-quarter rally, with October, November, and December all closing positively.

However, this year presents a unique scenario, primarily due to the early launch of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024. This influx of institutional capital entered the market ahead of schedule, effectively accelerating the entire market cycle. Justin d’Anethan elaborated:

“This is, in fact, a positive development. The meaningful entry of institutional capital has fundamentally reshaped the pace, depth, and price reaction timeline of the cryptocurrency market. This is precisely what people mean when they say, ‘this bull market is different’.”

Technical analysts are currently scrutinizing Bitcoin’s monthly closing price, particularly its ability to hold above the $93,000 threshold. They anticipate that a failure to maintain this momentum over the weekend could lead to further downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Analyst “CrediBull Crypto” stated on X (formerly Twitter): “As the monthly close approaches, I’ve highlighted two critical price levels to monitor within this timeframe: $93,401 and $102,437.”

He considers a November closing price above $93,000 to be a “positive signal” and a highly probable outcome. However, a close above $102,000 would represent an “extremely strong” signal, though he added, “we may need to wait until next month to witness such an event.”