Leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Gemini (trading under the ticker GEMI) has officially entered the burgeoning prediction market sector, securing a pivotal license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
On Wednesday, Gemini announced it was granted a “Designated Contract Market (DCM)” license. This crucial approval empowers Gemini to offer federally regulated prediction market services to its U.S. customer base, marking a new era for accessible and compliant event-based trading.
We’ve just received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the @CFTC which will allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customers.
— Gemini (@Gemini) December 10, 2025
Through its subsidiary, Gemini Titan, the platform will initially launch classic “Binary Event Contracts.” These straightforward contracts allow users to place ‘yes’ or ‘no’ wagers on the outcomes of future events. Participants will be able to engage in these prediction market trades directly via the Gemini web interface, utilizing U.S. dollar funds from their existing accounts.
Looking ahead, Gemini has signaled its intent to potentially broaden its derivatives offerings. The company indicated it may explore other CFTC-regulated markets, including cryptocurrency futures, options, and perpetual contracts, thereby solidifying its position as a comprehensive digital asset trading venue.
This milestone comes after a multi-year effort, with Gemini having first submitted its DCM license application on March 10, 2020. While the initial application did not explicitly detail plans for prediction markets, the DCM license is widely regarded as a golden ticket, providing the regulatory framework necessary for compliant and innovative trading facilities.
The prediction market landscape itself has been experiencing a meteoric rise. Industry leaders Kalshi and Polymarket witnessed explosive growth during the most recent U.S. election cycle, a momentum that only intensified following Donald Trump’s assumption of office. Both platforms reported consecutive record-breaking monthly transaction volumes in October and November, with strong performance anticipated to continue this month.
Historically, the CFTC has maintained a cautious stance on prediction markets, even prohibiting Polymarket’s U.S. operations and exercising prudence regarding new event contract listings by Kalshi. However, a landmark legal victory for Kalshi concerning election betting contracts has not only opened doors for areas like sports betting but has also ushered in a significant shift in the regulatory climate.
Under the second Trump administration, the CFTC, led by acting chair Caroline Pham, has demonstrated an unprecedented level of openness towards prediction markets. Further underscoring this trend, Donald Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, is reportedly planning to launch its own prediction market in collaboration with Crypto.com.
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