Bitcoin’s Next Decade: Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Forecasts a ’10-Year Grind’ of Steady, Strong Returns

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, offers a compelling long-term outlook for Bitcoin, projecting a decade of consistent, robust growth rather than the explosive, volatile cycles of the past. He emphasizes the shift towards more stable, yet strong, returns for the leading cryptocurrency.

“I think we are in a strong return phase of a steady 10-year rise. While returns are not amazing, they are strong, volatility is lower, and there will be ups and downs during this period,” Matt Hougan stated on CNBC on Friday.

Hougan anticipates a significant paradigm shift for Bitcoin, moving away from its traditional four-year “boom and bust” cycles towards what he terms a “10-year grind.” This new phase will be characterized by sustained, albeit no longer explosive, returns. In recent interviews and Bitwise’s annual outlook, Hougan predicts that despite a potentially flat performance for digital assets by the end of 2025, Bitcoin is poised to reach a new all-time high in 2026, primarily fueled by accelerating institutional adoption and favorable regulatory tailwinds.

Hougan remains confident in his prediction that 2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin.

This optimistic forecast comes against the backdrop of a challenging year for digital assets. Bitcoin has seen a roughly 7% decline year-to-date, currently trading around $87,000, representing over a 30% pullback from its October peak of $126,000. Hougan attributes this subdued performance to lingering expectations among retail investors for the traditional four-year halving cycle, which historically has triggered sharp rallies followed by deep corrections.

The End of the Four-Year Cycle

During his recent CNBC appearance, Hougan declared, “The four-year cycle is actually over.” He highlighted the diminishing influence of factors like the halving effect, interest rate fluctuations, and leverage-driven speculation. Instead, he envisions a decade of “strong but not amazing” growth, where Bitcoin achieves sustainable appreciation amidst reduced volatility, thanks to substantial institutional capital inflows acting as a stabilizing force.

In Bitwise’s “10 Crypto Predictions for 2026,” co-authored by Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen and published earlier this month, the firm expressed considerable optimism for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. The foremost prediction is that Bitcoin will “break the four-year cycle and reach a new all-time high,” propelled by surging institutional demand, significant spot ETF allocations, and a pro-crypto regulatory environment under a potential Trump administration. Hougan underscored the pivotal role of ETFs, forecasting that as platforms like Citi, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch expand access, these investment vehicles will absorb over 100% of Bitcoin’s new supply in 2026—approximately 166,000 Bitcoins, valued at an estimated $15.3 billion at current prices.

A New Era of Lower Volatility

Volatility emerges as another critical theme in Hougan’s predictions. He anticipates Bitcoin’s volatility next year will be lower than that of Nvidia stock, noting that throughout 2025, the cryptocurrency’s price swings have already been less pronounced than the chipmaker’s. This reduction in risk is attributed to a fundamental shift in the holder structure: institutional investors now engage in mechanical portfolio rebalancing, effectively counteracting the momentum-chasing behavior of retail investors and thereby preventing deeper market corrections.

“We are seeing ‘staircase up, elevator down’—meaning corrections are more moderate,” Hougan explained. He added that thanks to continuous buying from endowments and funds, recent corrections have been mitigated to around 30%, a stark contrast to the historical 60%. As an additional forecast, Bitwise expects Bitcoin’s correlation with the broader stock market to decrease, further solidifying its position as a valuable diversification asset.

Broader Catalysts and the “10-Year Grind” in Action

Hougan’s “10-year grind” thesis resonates with the perspectives of other industry leaders, such as ReserveOne CIO Sebastian Bea, who similarly believes Bitcoin’s performance will remain strong but will be tempered by maturing market dynamics.

The burgeoning expansion of stablecoins, now boasting a market capitalization exceeding $300 billion, and the accelerating tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)—potentially bringing trillions of dollars on-chain through initiatives like the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC)—are identified as significant long-term catalysts. However, Hougan cautions that regulatory clarity, particularly the passage of the “CLARITY Act,” is paramount. Without it, the rally could face impediments; conversely, its approval would signal a “safe entry” for investors during market pullbacks.

These predictions extend beyond Bitcoin. Bitwise foresees that half of Ivy League endowment funds, following the lead of Brown and Harvard, will allocate a portion of their capital to cryptocurrencies, potentially unlocking billions from their collective $871 billion in assets. If the CLARITY Act is passed, Ethereum and Solana are also projected to achieve new all-time highs, benefiting significantly from the overarching trends of stablecoin growth and asset tokenization.

Hougan maintains an overall optimistic outlook for 2026, reiterating in the interview that the market is likely to close higher by year-end, though he refrained from providing specific price targets.

While sentiment indicators currently place Bitcoin in the “extreme fear” zone, Hougan’s vision offers a rational, contrarian perspective on the asset’s future volatility. With institutional participants increasingly dominating the landscape—evidenced by a record $85.7 trillion in crypto derivatives trading volume this year—2026 could indeed herald the dawn of crypto’s maturity phase, transforming it from a speculative gamble into a standard component of diversified investment portfolios. Nevertheless, skeptics suggest that human psychology might ensure the persistence of cycle effects, potentially influencing price movements despite structural market shifts.