Galaxy Research Unveils Bold 2026 Crypto Predictions: Bitcoin Highs, Stablecoin Surge, and Market Evolution

Galaxy Research, a leading entity under the Galaxy umbrella, has released a comprehensive report detailing 26 key predictions for the cryptocurrency market through 2026. The insightful analysis anticipates a continued surge in institutional crypto adoption, explosive growth across stablecoins, Decentralized Finance (DeFi), and prediction markets, alongside the potential for Bitcoin to reach unprecedented new highs despite expected significant volatility.

Bitcoin’s Volatile Path to Potential New Highs

The Galaxy team acknowledges that 2026 is poised for substantial market volatility, making precise forecasting challenging. Nevertheless, the probability of Bitcoin (BTC) establishing a new all-time high within the year remains a strong possibility. Current options market data reflects this uncertainty and potential, showing roughly equal probabilities for BTC reaching either $70,000 or $130,000 by the end of June 2026, and similar parity for $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end. The report cautions, “We believe that short-term downside risks remain until Bitcoin price firmly re-establishes above $100,000 to $105,000.”

Key Market Transformations and Growth Areas

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook and Value Capture Shift

Beyond the immediate horizon, Galaxy’s team boldly projects Bitcoin could ascend to $250,000 by the end of 2027. This ambitious target is underpinned by the expanded accessibility offered by Bitcoin ETFs and a burgeoning demand for alternative stores of value amidst global monetary uncertainty. A significant theme for 2026 will be a fundamental re-evaluation of value capture within public blockchains. The report predicts a doubling of application layer revenue, driven by the sustained dominance of transactions, DeFi, wallets, and nascent consumer applications in generating on-chain fees. This shift signifies an accelerating transfer of value capture from foundational protocols to the application layer, reinforcing the “fat application theory” over traditional protocol-centric models.

Stablecoins to Eclipse Traditional Payment Systems

Under the anticipated clarity of the “GENIUS Act” in early 2026, stablecoin transaction volumes are predicted to surpass those of the Automated Clearing House (ACH). Stablecoins are poised for monumental expansion, exceeding historical growth trajectories as new market entrants compete for share and integrate these digital assets into payments, tokenized assets, and enterprise settlements. Galaxy highlights, “Compared to traditional cryptocurrencies, stablecoin transaction speed remains very high. We observe stablecoin supply continuously maintaining a 30-40% compound annual growth rate, with transaction volume growing in parallel. Stablecoin transaction volume has already surpassed mainstream credit card networks like Visa, and currently accounts for about half of ACH transaction volume.” Furthermore, the Solana co-founder’s projection of a $1 trillion stablecoin market capitalization by 2026 aligns with this optimistic outlook, despite potential challenges from inflation-related proposals.

Prediction Markets: AI-Driven Growth for Polymarket

The weekly trading volume on Polymarket’s prediction markets is forecast to consistently exceed $1.5 billion. This remarkable growth will be propelled by enhanced capital efficiency, the advent of AI-driven order flow, and a broadening of distribution channels. The report notes, “Polymarket’s weekly nominal trading volume is already close to $1 billion. We anticipate this figure will consistently exceed $1.5 billion in 2026 as new capital efficiency layers deepen liquidity and AI-driven order flow increases trading frequency. Polymarket’s continuously improving distribution mechanisms also continue to accelerate capital inflows.”

DeFi and Privacy Tokens: Expanding Influence

By the close of 2026, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is expected to command over 25% of the total spot trading volume through decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Concurrently, the total market capitalization of privacy tokens is projected to surge from its current $63 billion to exceed $100 billion. This rise is attributed to a growing demand for concealed balances, particularly in response to increasing institutional scrutiny and the need for greater financial privacy.

US Crypto Spot ETFs: A Flood of Capital and Innovation

US crypto spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are anticipated to attract over $50 billion in net inflows, building on the $23 billion recorded in 2025. This influx will coincide with the opening of major platforms like Vanguard to crypto ETFs and the launch of more than 100 new products, including altcoin, multi-asset, and leveraged ETFs, signaling a significant maturation and diversification of the institutional crypto investment landscape.

Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): Consolidation on the Horizon

Galaxy Research predicts a period of significant consolidation within the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) sector in 2026, with five or more DATs expected to face forced asset sales, acquisitions, or complete shutdowns. Following a boom in DAT emergence in Q2 2025, market capitalization to net asset value (mNAV) multiples began to narrow from October onwards. The report elaborates: “After many companies from various business sectors transformed into DATs to leverage market financing conditions, the next phase will differentiate between DATs with robust development strategies or asset management capabilities and those lacking coherent strategies or asset management capabilities. To succeed in 2026, DATs will need sound capital structures, innovative liquidity management and yield generation methods, and close collaboration with relevant protocols (if these partnerships are not already established). Scale advantages (e.g., Strategy’s large BTC holdings) or jurisdictional advantages (e.g., Metaplanet’s case in Japan) may also provide additional benefits. However, many DATs that rapidly entered the market during the initial boom lacked effective strategic planning. These DATs will struggle to maintain their market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV), and thus may be forced to liquidate assets, be acquired by larger entities, or in the worst-case scenario, shut down completely.”