Bitcoin Under Pressure: Trump’s Tariff Threats Fuel Bearish Bets in Options Market, Signaling Further Decline

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing heightened volatility and unease today as former U.S. President Donald Trump once again brandishes the tariff weapon. Bitcoin’s price has continued its descent, falling below the $91,000 mark. Compounding this apprehension, data from the options market is sounding a clear alarm: traders are heavily betting on further downside, with models indicating a 30% probability that Bitcoin will breach the $80,000 threshold before the end of June this year.

Sean Dawson, Head of Research at decentralized derivatives trading protocol Derive.xyz, highlighted how the pricing structure in the options market distinctly reflects an investor shift towards a defensive posture:

“The options market is exhibiting a clear ‘Downside Skew.’ Our data models show a 30% chance of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by June 26th; conversely, the probability of it rising above $120,000 within the same period is only 19%.”

Understanding Options: Financial Insurance or Speculative Bets

For investors less familiar with derivatives, options can be likened to financial ‘insurance’ or ‘speculative agreements’:

• Call Option: A bet on price appreciation, profiting if the asset’s price exceeds the strike price (bullish outlook).
• Put Option: A bet on price decline, profiting if the asset’s price falls below the strike price (bearish outlook/hedging).

Currently, a significant volume of capital is pouring into put options, signaling widespread trader anxiety about the market’s future. This fear is rooted in the potential for Bitcoin to repeat a ‘big crash’ observed in April 2025—an event the article describes as having been triggered by Trump’s comprehensive tariffs on multiple countries, leading to global market shocks and a Bitcoin dip to $75,000.

The Immediate Catalyst: Greenland Dispute Ignites Geopolitical Tensions

The current wave of panic stems from the “Greenland purchase dispute” that erupted over the weekend. Following the rejection of his proposal to acquire Greenland, Trump reacted by threatening to impose a 10% tariff on ten European nations. This geopolitical friction immediately sent Bitcoin tumbling from approximately $95,000 down to around $91,000.

Sean Dawson issued a stern warning: “The escalating tensions between the U.S. and Europe over the Greenland issue are significantly amplifying market risk. We may witness a return to a high-volatility market environment, a risk that current spot prices have not yet fully absorbed.”

Dawson’s analysis further indicates that the current options skew (a metric measuring the difference in prices between call and put options) remains negative, strongly implying short-term downside risk. Across major platforms like Derive and Deribit, investors are heavily buying put options with strike prices ranging from $75,000 to $80,000. This widespread activity signals a prevailing market expectation that Bitcoin could potentially decline into the mid-$70,000 range.