Market Volatility: US Jobs Data Sparks Rollercoaster Ride, Bitcoin Retreats Amid Fed Caution

The global financial markets have recently experienced a significant rollercoaster ride, triggered by the latest economic indicators from the United States. Yesterday evening, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January non-farm payrolls report, revealing an unexpected and robust surge of 130,000 new jobs. This figure dramatically surpassed market expectations of 66,000 and marked the largest increase recorded since April 2025. Concurrently, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, outperforming the anticipated 4.4%.

Initially, this exceptionally strong jobs data ignited a wave of optimism across global markets. Both US stock indices and the broader cryptocurrency market witnessed substantial gains, reflecting investor confidence in a strengthening economy. However, this rally proved to be short-lived. The prevailing sentiment quickly shifted as two Federal Reserve governors issued cautious remarks, emphasizing that interest rate cuts should not be rushed. Adding to the market’s unease, leading Wall Street analytical institutions warned of potential annual benchmark revisions that could lead to a significant downward adjustment of millions of jobs data for 2025. These combined factors prompted a sharp market reversal, with earlier gains being surrendered. Bitcoin (BTC), after briefly pushing past the $68,000 mark, retreated to settle around $66,000.

Delving into Bitcoin’s current technical landscape, the flagship cryptocurrency has been trading consistently below a long-term downtrend line for nearly four consecutive months, a trajectory that commenced on October 10 of last year. This bearish trend was largely confirmed by December. For BTC to signal a potential end to this bear market, its price would need to firmly establish itself above $86,000. However, given the prevailing market conditions and current price action, even a sustained break above $70,000 would be considered a significant achievement in the short term. Furthermore, overcoming the formidable $76,000 resistance level and converting it into reliable support is crucial before any meaningful challenge towards the $80,000 psychological barrier can be mounted. Consequently, achieving such ambitious targets appears challenging within the immediate future.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar presents further pivotal events this week. Tonight, the latest unemployment claims figures will be released, followed by the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tomorrow evening. The CPI data is expected to exert a more substantial influence on market dynamics. Should the CPI figures surprise to the downside (i.e., indicate lower inflation than expected), it could significantly bring forward market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Currently, the market projects the earliest rate cut to occur in July, a shift from the previous expectation of June just last night. An earlier rate cut timeline would generally be perceived as a positive catalyst for the markets, potentially boosting risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Based on historical data patterns, there is a strong probability that the upcoming CPI report will align with market expectations. Therefore, in the absence of any unforeseen negative developments, markets could potentially see a rebound on Friday, driven by the CPI release. Investors are advised to closely monitor these economic indicators, as they will play a crucial role in shaping short-term market trends and monetary policy expectations.