Standard Chartered Revises Crypto Outlook Downward, Warns of Further Decline Before Year-End Recovery

Standard Chartered has once again lowered its short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market, cautioning investors about potential further declines and a final wave of “capitulation selling” in the coming months. Despite this bearish near-term view, the bank remains optimistic about a market recovery by the end of the year.

Short-Term Pain Ahead: A Grim Forecast

Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, attributes the ongoing market turbulence to persistent macroeconomic headwinds, stating:

“I think digital asset prices will experience more pain in the coming months, eventually leading to a wave of selling. Until Kevin Warsh formally takes over the Federal Reserve, the macroeconomic environment will struggle to provide sufficient support.”

Kendrick projects that sustained selling pressure could drive Bitcoin down to $50,000 or even lower, while Ethereum might retest the $1,400 mark. However, he emphasizes that these levels would represent excellent “entry points” for long-term investors.

Strategic Entry Points and Year-End Recovery Targets

Looking towards the end of the year, Standard Chartered anticipates a significant rebound. Kendrick expects Bitcoin to rally back to $100,000, with Ethereum potentially soaring to $4,000.

This latest revision marks a series of downward adjustments by Standard Chartered. In December of last year, the bank slashed its Bitcoin target from $300,000 to $150,000, now further reducing it to $100,000. Similarly, Ethereum’s target price was halved from $7,500 to $4,000.

Altcoins Face Similar Headwinds: Revised 2026 Forecasts

Beyond the two leading cryptocurrencies, Geoffrey Kendrick has also adjusted his year-end 2026 predictions for major altcoins. These revisions primarily reflect a “re-marking to market,” aligning their relative performance with the trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum:

• Solana (SOL): Year-end target revised from $250 down to $135.
• Ripple (XRP): Year-end target significantly reduced from $8.00 to $2.80.
• Binance Coin (BNB): Year-end target adjusted from $1,755 down to $1,050.
• Avalanche (AVAX): Year-end target sharply cut from $100 to $18.

Unpacking the Bearish Catalysts

Kendrick identifies two primary factors contributing to the pessimistic short-term outlook for the crypto market:

1. ETF Investor Exhaustion

The report highlights a significant erosion of confidence among ETF investors. Bitcoin spot ETF holdings have reportedly dwindled by nearly 100,000 BTC since their peak following the product’s launch. Critically, the average cost for current holders is estimated at around $90,000, implying that a substantial portion of the market is “severely underwater.” This situation suggests investors are more inclined to reduce exposure on rallies or exit at stop-loss levels, rather than accumulate on dips.

2. Macroeconomic Uncertainty Looms

The prevailing macroeconomic climate continues to dampen market sentiment. Recent mixed economic data from the United States has led to widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts might be delayed until after a leadership transition, possibly post-June. This prolonged uncertainty is making it challenging for the cryptocurrency market to attract significant new capital inflows in the near term.

Resilience Amidst Volatility: A Long-Term Perspective

Despite the immediate headwinds, Geoffrey Kendrick maintains that the long-term prospects for the cryptocurrency market remain robust. He notes that the current downturn is relatively mild compared to past bear markets, particularly the systemic risks seen in 2022 with events like the Terra/Luna collapse and FTX’s downfall. The absence of a widespread platform collapse this time around suggests increased market resilience, largely due to heightened institutional participation.

“Once the bottom is established, we expect cryptocurrencies to gradually recover throughout the remainder of 2026,” Kendrick affirmed, adding that altcoin movements are generally expected to mirror those of the mainstream cryptocurrencies.