On-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant has unveiled a crucial insight into the recent price rallies of Bitcoin and Ethereum: the upward momentum is **not being driven by “short covering” buy orders, but rather by the establishment of new long positions within the derivatives market.** This indicates that traders are actively betting on a continued market uptrend, rather than being passively forced out of short positions.
Ceasefire Sparks Risk-On Sentiment and Crypto Surge
The market’s risk appetite experienced a swift resurgence following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. In the 24 hours immediately after the news broke, Bitcoin climbed approximately 4%, while Ethereum saw an even more significant gain of around 6%. This not only reversed previous bearish trends but also marked their strongest single-day performance in over a month. According to CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, in his Thursday report, **this impressive rally was primarily propelled by perpetual futures traders.**
Derivatives Data Confirms Active Long Accumulation
Moreno highlighted that within 24 hours of the ceasefire announcement, the Open Interest (OI) for Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures surged by an impressive $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively. Both cryptocurrencies saw their USD-denominated Open Interest reach a one-month high. Moreno explained:
“The simultaneous surge in both major cryptocurrencies reflects a capital allocation driven by macroeconomic events, with traders proactively positioning themselves to capitalize on an expected rebound in overall market risk appetite.”
Crucially, Moreno further emphasized that the **”coin-denominated Open Interest” also saw a parallel increase.** This specific metric is vital as it effectively rules out a short squeeze as the primary catalyst, instead confirming a substantial influx of newly established long positions entering the market.
CryptoQuant’s analysis also pointed to a significant uptick in buying activity across the perpetual futures market. The **”Taker buy-sell ratio”** — a key indicator measuring the strength of active buying versus selling pressure — for both Bitcoin and Ethereum **climbed above 1.** This clearly signals that buyers are dominating the market, indicating a strong directional consensus among participants. Moreno stated:
“The concurrent increase in Bitcoin and Ethereum long positions suggests the market is pricing in expectations of a sustained improvement in the macroeconomic environment, at least in the short term.”
US Investor Engagement Returns, Bolstering Optimism
Adding to the positive sentiment, the long-dormant US investor base has begun to re-engage. The **”Coinbase Premium Index”** — a metric reflecting spot buying demand from US institutional and retail investors, which had been consistently negative for several weeks — **finally turned positive.**
Julio Moreno added, “If the ceasefire agreement holds, and there’s no escalation of conflict in the next two weeks, the Coinbase Premium is likely to remain positive, further reinforcing the upward trend.”
Key Price Levels and the Path to Structural Recovery
From a price perspective, CryptoQuant noted that **Bitcoin has successfully breached a critical resistance zone from recent weeks: the “Trader’s Lower Realized Price” at approximately $69,400.** The “Realized Price” is a widely used on-chain metric representing the average cost basis of all coins in circulation, while the “Trader’s Realized Price” specifically focuses on the cost basis of short-term traders.
Moreno indicated that if Bitcoin can maintain its position above $69,400, and assuming the US-Iran situation does not significantly deteriorate, the next crucial target will be the **”Trader’s Realized Price” at approximately $79,000.** He cautioned that this price level has historically served as a **critical resistance point marking the bull-bear divide,** and is ultimately the final hurdle to confirm whether **Bitcoin can achieve a “structural recovery.”**
Disclaimer: This article is provided for market information purposes only. All content and views expressed are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. They do not represent the views or positions of BlockTempo (區塊客). Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and BlockTempo will not bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses incurred by investors’ transactions.
