Standard Chartered Revises Bitcoin Forecast: $100K by 2025, $500K Target Shifts to 2030 Amid Evolving Market Dynamics

London, UK – Standard Chartered has significantly recalibrated its Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast, halving its year-end 2025 target from an ambitious $200,000 to a more conservative $100,000. Furthermore, the global banking giant has pushed back its long-term prediction for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by two years, now anticipating this landmark in 2030 instead of 2028. Standard Chartered emphatically states that this adjustment does not signal a bearish turn but rather a strategic re-timing of market expectations, with its fundamental long-term structural bullish outlook for Bitcoin remaining firmly intact.

In a comprehensive research report issued on December 9, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s Head of Global Digital Assets Research, candidly admitted that recent price movements “forced us to readjust our original forecasts.” Despite a notable 36% correction from its October historical high, which saw Bitcoin briefly dip to $80,500, Kendrick highlights that such a pullback falls within a “normal range” when viewed against Bitcoin’s historical performance following the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“Our previous short-term targets were wrong,” Kendrick openly acknowledged, while simultaneously reinforcing the bank’s conviction: “We still firmly believe that Bitcoin will eventually reach $500,000.”

Standard Chartered’s Updated Bitcoin Price Pathway: A Gradual Ascent

The revised forecast outlines a more measured and extended trajectory for Bitcoin’s growth:

• End of 2025: $100,000
• 2026: $150,000
• 2027: $225,000
• 2028: $300,000
• 2029: $400,000
• 2030: $500,000

This updated pathway represents a substantial shift from earlier projections, which had anticipated Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.

The latest revision marks a significant pivot from Standard Chartered’s consistently bullish pronouncements in recent months. As recently as July, the bank had reaffirmed its $200,000 target for late 2025, citing strong tailwinds from ETF inflows, corporate asset allocation demand, and supportive policy environments. Even more recently, the bank had posited that Bitcoin might “never” dip below $100,000 again if a confluence of favorable political and economic conditions persisted.

Corporate Buying: A Fading Catalyst

Geoffrey Kendrick attributes the fundamental driver behind this forecast adjustment to a crucial shift in “demand dynamics.”

He explained that following the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, the cryptocurrency’s rally was primarily propelled by “two main forces”: substantial ETF capital inflows and aggressive corporate buying from digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, including prominent entities like MicroStrategy and various Bitcoin mining firms.

However, Kendrick now believes that this second major force—corporate buying—has largely exhausted its momentum.

Standard Chartered’s base scenario posits that “DAT companies’ Bitcoin buying has concluded.” This conclusion is reinforced by the “mNAV” metric (market capitalization relative to Bitcoin holdings), which no longer indicates a compelling rationale for these firms to engage in aggressive balance sheet expansion.

With the overall mNAV experiencing a decline, and MicroStrategy’s mNAV specifically falling below 1.0 for the first time since 2023, Kendrick anticipates a wave of consolidation among smaller DAT companies rather than a renewed spree of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by new corporate entrants.

Crucially, this does not imply an imminent large-scale sell-off by major holders. MicroStrategy, for example, holds Bitcoin at an average cost of approximately $74,000, placing its current holdings “significantly in profit.” Furthermore, historical data from previous cycles demonstrates that the company has consistently refrained from selling, even when Bitcoin’s price dipped below its average cost basis.

Consequently, Standard Chartered’s updated model assumes “no further net buying from DAT companies.” The market is now expected to rely predominantly on quarterly net inflows from ETFs, estimated at around 200,000 BTC. While these inflows have historically been powerful enough to propel prices to new highs, they now stand as the singular structural pillar of demand.

Addressing widespread market anxieties about whether the recent correction signals the onset of a “new crypto winter,” Geoffrey Kendrick explicitly dismisses this notion. While the timing of the most recent peak (approximately 18 months after the April 2024 halving) aligns with past cyclical patterns, he argues that the true dominant factors driving price action have fundamentally evolved.

ETFs Emerge as Primary Price Driver, Outpacing Halving Cycles

The report unequivocally states: “With the advent of ETF buying, we believe the Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer the primary price driver. Long-term ETF buyers are now the more critical force shaping market movements.”

Standard Chartered’s in-depth analysis of ETF and corporate holding data reveals a strong correlation: past periods where quarterly combined buying reached 250,000, 450,000, and 250,000 Bitcoin consistently coincided with significant price surges, corresponding to March 2024, early 2025, and July 2025, respectively.

In stark contrast, a recent historical high point occurred when quarterly buying had dwindled to approximately 160,000 Bitcoin, which has since further contracted to roughly 50,000 Bitcoin – marking a new low since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Against this backdrop, Kendrick characterizes the recent downturn as “the calm before the storm,” rather than an indication of structural collapse. However, he also cautions that the current market structure highlights Bitcoin’s short-term price movements are now highly dependent on the consistent flow of capital into ETFs.

Structural Bullish View Remains Unchanged: The Asset Allocation Imperative

Despite the comprehensive downward revision of its medium-term figures, Standard Chartered’s long-term stance on Bitcoin remains unequivocally bullish. This enduring optimism is now underpinned not merely by “cycles” but by a robust “asset allocation logic” that points to Bitcoin’s growing importance in diversified portfolios.

Standard Chartered’s model, which meticulously compares a theoretical “Bitcoin-Gold” investment portfolio with current market capitalization, leads to a compelling conclusion: global investment portfolios are still “severely under-allocated” to Bitcoin.

Based on historical volatility estimates, the theoretical optimal allocation ratio for such a portfolio stands at “12% Bitcoin, 88% Gold.” However, current market capitalization figures suggest actual allocation is only around “5% Bitcoin, 95% Gold,” indicating a significant gap.

If utilizing implied volatility assumptions from the past three months, the optimal Bitcoin allocation could even rise to 20%. When considering the current implied volatility of both assets, Bitcoin’s share could potentially reach as high as 36%, implying a long-term potential upside of approximately sevenfold from current levels.

Geoffrey Kendrick concedes that the precise timing of such a portfolio shift is inherently “difficult to predict,” and with the fading of DAT demand, the process might unfold slower than initially anticipated. Nevertheless, he remains confident that as Bitcoin ETFs gain widespread adoption and more investment committees formally integrate digital assets into their investment mandates, actual allocation ratios will progressively align with these theoretical optimal values.

The report concludes by reiterating Standard Chartered’s core belief: the “crypto winter” is firmly a relic of the past. Bitcoin’s structural role as a crucial hedge against banking sector pressures and US sovereign debt risks—including political pressures on the Federal Reserve and concerns over future overly loose monetary policies—remains robust and undiminished.

In his final remarks, Geoffrey Kendrick offered a succinct summary of his updated perspective, admitting, “I got the timing wrong, but not the direction.” He concluded:

We have revised down price forecasts until 2029 and extended our forecast horizon to 2030, by which time we expect Bitcoin to reach $500,000.