A bold forecast from Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, suggests a pivotal moment is approaching for Bitcoin investors. Kendrick anticipates that Bitcoin will “almost certainly” dip below the crucial $100,000 mark before the weekend. However, he emphasizes that this anticipated downturn should be viewed not as a setback, but as an extraordinary, potentially “final,” strategic entry point for investors.

The Current Market Climate: A Brief Halt in Bitcoin’s Ascent

Bitcoin recently reached a new all-time high of $126,000 on October 7th, showcasing robust bullish momentum. This impressive rally, however, was abruptly interrupted on October 11th by a sharp sell-off. Kendrick attributes this reversal to rekindled apprehensions surrounding the US-China trade tensions, highlighting the sensitivity of the crypto market to broader geopolitical developments.

“The immediate question,” Kendrick states in his latest report, “is how deep will Bitcoin’s correction extend before it establishes a floor? A drop beneath $100,000 now appears unavoidable, yet this decline is likely to be ephemeral.”

Key Indicators Signaling a Strategic Rebound

Kendrick meticulously outlines several indicators that reinforce his bullish long-term outlook and guide his short-term dip prediction:

1. The “Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin” Phenomenon

A significant trend Kendrick has identified is the dynamic shift in capital flows between traditional safe-haven assets and digital gold. He observed a sharp decline in gold prices earlier this week, occurring concurrently with an intraday rebound in Bitcoin. This correlation is interpreted as a “sell gold, buy Bitcoin” capital rotation, suggesting investors are increasingly reallocating funds from precious metals to the leading cryptocurrency. Kendrick posits that a continuation and increased frequency of this rotation would serve as a powerful affirmative signal for Bitcoin’s bottom formation.

2. Macroeconomic Liquidity and the Fed’s Stance

Market liquidity conditions are another critical factor. Kendrick notes that multiple liquidity indicators have been tightening. The pivotal question, he argues, is when the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will acknowledge these tightening conditions and potentially adjust its quantitative tightening (QT) policy by slowing down or pausing it. Such a policy shift could inject fresh liquidity into the market, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.

3. Enduring Technical Support: The 50-Week Moving Average

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Kendrick highlights that since early 2023, when Bitcoin traded around $25,000, it has consistently maintained its position above the 50-week moving average. This historical support level has proven to be a reliable foundation, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s underlying strength. Notably, Kendrick’s earlier prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024, made when the price was significantly lower, has already materialized.

A “Last Opportunity” Below $100,000

Kendrick’s message to investors is clear: “Flexibility is paramount. Investors should be prepared to capitalize on the dip once Bitcoin falls below $100,000. This could very well be the final instance Bitcoin trades beneath this significant threshold.”

As of recent CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is trading around $108,430, showing a marginal 0.2% gain over the past 24 hours, positioning it squarely in the zone of Kendrick’s imminent dip prediction.

Ambitious Long-Term Targets: $200,000 by Year-End, $500,000 by 2028

Despite his short-term bearish prediction, Kendrick maintains an unequivocally optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s medium to long-term trajectory. He reiterates Standard Chartered’s steadfast year-end target price of $200,000 and projects an astonishing ascent to $500,000 by 2028. This long-term vision underscores the profound potential he sees in the cryptocurrency, transcending temporary market fluctuations.