Fidelity’s Jurien Timmer Warns of Impending Bitcoin ‘Crypto Winter’ and Year-Long Correction, Shifts Focus to Gold

Jurien Timmer, Fidelity’s esteemed Global Macro Research Director and a long-time proponent of Bitcoin, has recently adopted a more conservative stance on the cryptocurrency. Timmer issues a cautionary note, suggesting that Bitcoin may have completed another “4-year cycle” and is now poised to enter an extended correction period lasting up to a year, potentially ushering in a “crypto winter.”

Decoding Bitcoin’s Cyclical Nature: A Historical Perspective

Timmer’s analysis is rooted in Bitcoin’s historical price movements, which he observes have consistently followed recurring cyclical patterns. He highlights a striking alignment between the current market trajectory and previous bull-bear transitions, noting a high degree of correlation with historical trends and time structures.

He specifically points to Bitcoin’s peak of $125,000 in October this year, achieved after approximately 145 months of upward momentum. This milestone, according to Timmer, falls perfectly within the expected range predicted by his historical models.

Bitcoin bear markets, often colloquially termed “winters,” have historically spanned roughly a year. Consequently, Timmer postulates that following the conclusion of the most recent halving cycle, 2026 could emerge as a “consolidation year” for Bitcoin. He elaborates:

“While I maintain my long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin, my immediate concern is that, from both a price and time perspective, Bitcoin appears to have completed another 4-year halving cycle.”

“Given that previous Bitcoin winters have typically lasted around a year, I anticipate 2026 could be a period of temporary reprieve and consolidation for Bitcoin. From a technical standpoint, the crucial support zone lies approximately between $65,000 and $75,000.”

Gold’s Shimmering Outlook: A Contrasting View

In stark contrast to his cautious stance on Bitcoin, Jurien Timmer expresses considerably more optimism regarding gold. He underscores gold’s robust performance since 2025, which stands in sharp relief against Bitcoin’s relative subdued showing this year. Timmer does not foresee a “mean reversion” – where asset prices return to their long-term average – occurring between gold and Bitcoin in the near term.

Based on his observations, gold is currently entrenched in a formidable bull market, having accumulated approximately 65% in gains year-to-date. This impressive performance not only surpasses the growth rate of the global money supply but also demonstrates gold’s resilience by largely retaining its gains amidst recent market corrections – a quintessential characteristic of a robust bull market.