Crypto Heavyweights Clash: Arthur Hayes Challenges Kyle Samani to $100K Hyperliquid (HYPE) Bet

A war of words between two of the crypto industry’s most influential figures has dramatically escalated into a high-stakes $100,000 wager. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, publicly challenged Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital, on X (formerly Twitter) on February 9th. The gauntlet was thrown over the future price performance of Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, initiating a six-month bet that has swiftly captured the attention of the crypto world.

Hayes’s audacious proposal, detailed in his tweet, sets the terms for a showdown commencing at 00:00 UTC on February 10, 2026, and concluding at 00:00 UTC on July 31, 2026. During this pivotal period, HYPE must demonstrate superior price performance against any altcoin with a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion, as listed on CoinGecko. In a magnanimous gesture, Hayes has granted Samani the power to select his champion altcoin for the challenge. The loser of this epic contest will donate $100,000 to a charity designated by the winner. As of this writing, Kyle Samani has yet to publicly accept or decline the challenge, leaving the crypto community in suspense.

Since $HYPE is bad @KyleSamani let’s make a bet.

I bet that from 00:00 UTC 10 Feb 2026 to 00:00 UTC 31 July 2026 $HYPE will out perform any shitcoin >$1bn mcap on coingecko in USD terms. You choose your champion.

Loser donates $100k to a charity of the winner’s choice. https://t.co/9n3TjxiRPk

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 8, 2026

The Genesis of a High-Stakes Feud

This high-profile wager didn’t emerge from thin air. For several weeks, Kyle Samani has been a vocal critic of Hyperliquid, launching a barrage of accusations against the platform. His criticisms range from claims of incomplete open-source code to questioning the founder’s decision to establish the business outside their home country. Samani has gone as far as to assert that Hyperliquid is fundamentally flawed and potentially facilitates illicit activities.

Arthur Hayes, rather than engaging in a point-by-point technical rebuttal, framed his counter-argument through the lens of market mechanics. He posits that if HYPE truly is the “weak asset” Samani describes, it will inevitably falter against larger tokens in the long run. Conversely, if market forces dictate a different outcome, critics like Samani should be compelled to re-evaluate their stance.

Wider Implications: On-Chain vs. Centralized Derivatives

The controversy’s rapid spread is also intertwined with recent industry discourse. Analyst Jon Charbonneau previously lauded Hyperliquid’s order matching and execution quality, even drawing comparisons to traditional derivatives exchanges like the CME. This endorsement reignited the perennial debate: can a new generation of on-chain derivatives platforms genuinely challenge the dominance of established centralized exchanges?

Arthur Hayes’s Personal Conviction in HYPE

Further fueling the intrigue is Arthur Hayes’s own recent trading activity. On-chain data reveals that Hayes invested approximately $1.91 million in early February to acquire 57,881 HYPE tokens. This significant addition brings his total HYPE holdings to roughly 131,807 tokens, valued at approximately $4.3 million. Notably, this accumulation followed Hayes divesting from other tokens like PENDLE, ENA, and LDO, signaling a clear strategic shift of his asset allocation towards HYPE. It’s worth mentioning, however, that Hayes also sold approximately 96,600 HYPE for around $5.1 million in September of the previous year.

The Multicoin Capital Paradox: A Subtle Asymmetry

Perhaps the most captivating twist in this saga involves Multicoin Capital itself. While Kyle Samani publicly decried Hyperliquid, on-chain data paradoxically shows that addresses linked to Multicoin Capital began discreetly accumulating HYPE in late January. These addresses converted over 87,100 Ethereum (ETH), valued at more than $40 million at the time, into 1.35 million HYPE tokens. Coincidentally, Kyle Samani transitioned to an advisory role at Multicoin and stepped down from his management position in early February. Market observers speculate that this timing might explain the intriguing “asymmetry” between Samani’s public criticisms and his firm’s actual trading strategies.