Bitcoin (BTC) has once again relinquished the coveted $80,000 threshold, briefly dipping below $79,000 during Asian trading hours on September 8th. Market data reveals BTC touched approximately $78,670, marking a notable pullback from its recent short-term peak above $82,000. This downturn is primarily attributed to a dual pressure: a discernible shift from accumulation to selling by major holders, coupled with rekindled expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September following robust US employment figures. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week now looms as the next pivotal risk event for the market.
Whales Pivot from Accumulation to Distribution as Glassnode Score Drops
On-chain analytics indicate that the recent selling pressure on Bitcoin is not merely a phenomenon driven by short-term retail traders.
According to Glassnode’s “Accumulation Trend Score by Wallet Cohort,” the overall accumulation trend score for all holder groups has fallen to approximately 0.37. This metric provides insight into market sentiment: a score closer to 1 signals a strong tendency towards accumulation, while a score nearer to 0 reflects increasing distribution and selling activity.
Significantly, wallet cohorts of all sizes have transitioned into a net distribution phase—a pattern not observed since early June. Notably, large wallets holding over 1,000 BTC, colloquially known as “whales,” have emerged as primary sellers. This marks a stark contrast to the preceding months when BTC fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000, during which most large addresses consistently accumulated. With prices now approaching $80,000, a portion of this capital is clearly moving towards profit-taking.
Further data from CryptoQuant reinforces this trend, showing that unrealized profits accumulated by large whales among short-term holders surged to an unprecedented $9.07 billion by September 4th—the highest recorded since 2016. The following day, these profits still stood at a substantial $7.51 billion. Such elevated paper gains naturally amplify the incentive for large holders to realize profits should the price show signs of weakness.
$83,000 Proves Strong Resistance; CPI Set to Dictate Next Direction
From a technical standpoint, BTC briefly surpassed $82,000 last week but failed to overcome the formidable selling pressure zone around $83,000, subsequently retreating below $80,000.
Market participants are closely monitoring the 50-week moving average, currently around $79,687. Should BTC fail to establish firm support near $79,000, the short-term focus could shift downwards to the $77,000 to $78,000 range. Conversely, a decisive break back above $80,000 to $82,000 would open the door for another test of the $83,000 resistance level.
However, the capital flow narrative isn’t entirely bearish. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $987 million last week, marking their third consecutive week of positive flows. This consistent institutional interest suggests a degree of underlying demand and absorption capacity in the market.
The broader macroeconomic environment, however, has once again become a significant headwind for Bitcoin.
The US economy added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, a figure significantly exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. This stronger-than-anticipated labor market data has prompted traders to increase their bets on a Fed rate hike in September.
CME FedWatch pricing currently indicates a 58% to 60% probability of the Fed implementing a 25-basis-point rate hike at its September 16th meeting. Notably, UBS revised its forecast post-employment report, shifting from an initial expectation of no rate adjustments this year to now anticipating potential 25-basis-point hikes in both September and December.
“The recent resurgence in rate hike risks is primarily driven by robust employment data. This week’s CPI report will be crucial in determining whether the market further prices in a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance.”
The market’s immediate attention will now turn to the release of the US August inflation data this week.
Current market consensus projects the overall CPI annual growth rate to remain around 3.4%, with core CPI potentially moderating to approximately 2.4%. Should core inflation cool further, it could diminish the perceived urgency for an immediate Fed rate hike. However, if the CPI data surpasses expectations—especially amidst rising energy prices and geopolitical risks that are already fueling inflation concerns—the probability of a September rate hike could escalate once more.
The US 10-year Treasury yield, currently hovering around 4.79%, underscores a high-interest rate environment. This scenario elevates the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, thereby exerting valuation pressure on volatile risk assets like Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin is currently navigating a confluence of pressures: profit-taking by large on-chain entities, a formidable technical resistance at $83,000, and lingering uncertainty surrounding Fed policy. Nevertheless, sustained net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest that the market has not yet entered a full-scale retreat. In the short term, the ability of BTC to hold the $78,000 to $79,000 support zone, and whether this week’s CPI data pushes the rate hike probability beyond the current ~60% level, will be the two critical determinants for Bitcoin’s potential return above $80,000.”
Disclaimer: This article is for market information purposes only. All content and views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. They do not represent the views or positions of the author or BlockBeats. Investors should make their own decisions and trades. The author and BlockBeats will not bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses incurred by investors’ transactions.
