Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer at the crypto-focused venture capital fund Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, has emphatically declared that the cryptocurrency bull market is back with full force, and he’s not waiting for further market confirmation to capitalize on this massive wave.
In his latest Substack article published on Monday, Hayes posited that Bitcoin successfully bottomed out at $60,000 earlier this year. He now views a resurgence to a predicted all-time high of $126,000 by October 2025 as “inevitable.”
$90,000: The Bitcoin “Ignition Point”
Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $82,000 mark on Tuesday, currently hovering around $80,600 at the time of writing. To reclaim its previous glory, Bitcoin would need to climb approximately 55% from its current valuation.
Hayes, known for his acute sense of market sentiment, identifies $90,000 as the pivotal price point. He believes that a decisive breach of this barrier will trigger an explosive, parabolic rally.
From an options market perspective, when the price surges past a strike price, dealers who have sold call options face substantial loss exposure. This forces them to hedge their positions by purchasing Bitcoin in the spot market, effectively stepping on the accelerator for the cryptocurrency’s price surge.
Two Powerful Macroeconomic Tailwinds Propelling the Bull Market
Delving into the core drivers of this bull run, Arthur Hayes meticulously dissects two major macroeconomic forces that are channeling significant capital into the market.
1. The Global AI Infrastructure Race
Hayes observes that the colossal capital requirements for AI development are no longer solely sustained by the internal cash flows of tech giants. Instead, funding is increasingly shifting towards “credit expansion” facilitated by commercial banks and central banks.
He highlights that both the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) are indirectly fueling AI infrastructure growth through looser financial conditions. Notably, the Chinese banking system is actively redirecting liquidity from its struggling real estate sector into high-growth areas like technology and AI.
2. Geopolitical Shifts and Conflict
The second major catalyst, according to Hayes, stems from “geopolitics and war.” With escalating conflicts, such as the rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, nations are increasingly prioritizing the strengthening of domestic infrastructure and the hoarding of raw materials and strategic resources, rather than parking vast sums in U.S. dollar assets.
Hayes synthesizes these two phenomena into an overarching theme of “long-term high inflation.” He argues that the combination of war, AI expansion, and governments’ “frenzied money printing” to fund these expenditures creates the optimal environment for Bitcoin to outperform traditional assets.
Since the intensification of conflict on February 28, Bitcoin has notably outstripped the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index, the North American Software Technology ETF (IGV), and even traditional safe-haven asset gold. This demonstrates that market capital has already begun to price in this monumental shift in the macroeconomic landscape.
Maelstrom’s Altcoin Playbook: HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR
Beyond Bitcoin, Arthur Hayes also offered insights into Maelstrom’s strategy within the altcoin market. Currently, the fund holds substantial positions in Hyperliquid (HYPE) and the privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC). Furthermore, he identified the public blockchain project NEAR Protocol (NEAR) as their next target for building a significant position.
Regarding his bullish outlook on NEAR, Hayes indicated that a detailed rationale would be provided in a subsequent article. However, he outlined that the core thesis is built upon the convergence of a “privacy narrative” with the protocol’s unique “Intent-based architecture” – a blockchain design that allows users to simply express their transaction intent without managing complex underlying pathways. This combination, he believes, will generate substantial positive cash flow for the protocol.
Two Potential Scenarios for the Bull Market’s End
Naturally, no market rally lasts forever. Arthur Hayes also outlined two potential “black swan” events that could bring this bull market to a halt.
Firstly, he warns that if the U.S. and China witness “extremely irresponsible” mega AI corporate IPOs or mergers and acquisitions, leading to an over-absorption of capital that the market cannot digest, investors could be abruptly awakened from their speculative fervor.
The second risk factor is tied to the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election. Should the Democratic party campaign on an “anti-AI” platform, promising significant cuts to capital expenditure, and if this stance resonates widely with voters, it would compel banks to reassess their lending to the technology sector, thereby cutting off a vital flow of funds.
As for the November 2026 mid-term elections, Hayes views their impact as limited, considering them merely a “small speed bump” on the bull market’s relentless charge.
Summarizing the current market conditions, the legendary crypto figure offered his distinctively bold trading advice:
“It’s a bull market now, buy with your eyes closed! The time to take profits will eventually come, but it is absolutely not now.”
Disclaimer: This article is provided for market information purposes only. All content and views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. They do not represent the views and positions of BlockTempo. Investors should make their own decisions and trades. The author and BlockTempo will not bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses incurred by investors’ transactions.
