Chaos Labs’ 0xGeeGee: Weekly Market Insights on AI, RWA, Shorting, and Crypto Neo-Banks

Author: 0xGeeGee, Chaos Labs Researcher

Translated & Compiled by: Yuliya, PANews

---

Editor’s Note: Chaos Labs researcher 0xGeeGee recently published an in-depth analysis, offering market insights for the current and upcoming week. This comprehensive overview covers the evolving landscape of AI megatrends, promising projects in the Real World Asset (RWA) sector, shorting opportunities tied to aerospace stocks and Nasdaq 100 index adjustments, and the current state of crypto neo-banks. Below is the compiled article.

This article shares fresh perspectives, summarizing the past week’s market movements and setting the stage for the week ahead. While I hold several long-term positions (such as HYPE, BTC/MSTR, VELO/AERO) that won’t be extensively discussed here, my core investment thesis for them remains unchanged.

1. AI Megatrends for 2026 and Beyond: The Fable Ban and Emerging Opportunities

I want to reiterate a conviction I hold deeply, one that I believe will shape the AI development landscape—at least in terms of market sentiment—for years to come. The actual application layer is still nascent, making definitive predictions challenging.

My core thesis is this: AI is undergoing an economic reckoning.

In the past, corporate investment in Large Language Models (LLMs) was often characterized by a “spend as much as possible” mentality. However, as more independent and objective users engage with LLMs over time, traditional enterprises are recognizing a crucial reality: a lack of effective organizational management can lead to a superficial increase in perceived productivity, without achieving genuine efficiency gains.

Consequently, companies are now prioritizing the enhancement of “organizational management capabilities.” This involves making expenditures transparent, identifying productive versus ineffective spending, maximizing the utility of every dollar, and leveraging past investments. In essence, we are rediscovering the importance of diligence, a principle enterprises understand well in other areas but perhaps overlooked in their initial AI expenditures.

Let’s shift to specific trading ideas. I initially missed the trading opportunity presented by the Fable ban, primarily due to my initial skepticism about the immediate market reactions. My concern was that attempts to circumvent the ban would face severe penalties, which isn’t a positive development. However, a more rational perspective suggests that this event will direct greater market attention towards decentralized models and privacy protection, applicable to both model training and inference stages.

This theme aligns perfectly with the aforementioned concept of “efficiency.” It’s widely known that the unit cost of intelligence for open-source models is generally 90% lower than traditional models, despite not yet matching the performance of top-tier, frontier models.

So, am I advocating for $VVV or $TAO? Or perhaps $PRL?

Absolutely not. While there are a few intriguing tokens on the horizon, I cannot confidently recommend an asset with massive unlock pressure (TAO), one that has already surged 20x (VVV), or a project whose core proposition is “it’s Bitcoin, but you mine it by doing inference/AI work” (PRL).

1a: EigenCloud and DarkBloom

However, I do have two specific ideas within this sector.

The first is $EIGEN (please, hold your rotten tomatoes). Eigenlayer has arguably been one of the most disappointing projects of the 2023 cycle. I’d venture to say that the disillusionment surrounding restaking has significantly contributed to the current subdued sentiment around Ethereum, diverting substantial capital that could have flowed elsewhere.

I bring it up because Eigenlayer has fundamentally transitioned from mere restaking and Data Availability (DA) to EigenCloud. If this still sounds abstract (which, frankly, is understandable), I want to emphasize their recent launch: DarkBloom.

Simply put: DarkBloom is an Airbnb-like platform for AI inference, leveraging Mac computing power, with privacy and verification mechanisms built into its core.

Beyond this, they have other intriguing developments (like ECSDA Fail, which is quite cool—worth researching). Even if you perceive these as niche, remember that EIGEN is no longer the behemoth with a $20 billion Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV). Its current FDV is approximately $350 million (though it does have $7.25 million in monthly unlocks, which we can momentarily overlook).

Following the ELIP-12 proposal, EIGEN also stands to capture actual revenue, including 100% net revenue from EigenAI, EigenCloud, and EigenDA, along with 20% of revenue from AVS security services.

In summary, at its current valuation, I am bullish on EIGEN and have initiated a position.

1b: OpenServ

The second project is OpenServ (token symbol $SERV).

I won’t dwell on this project, as it’s been discussed extensively before. It essentially functions as an inference/orchestration layer for Agents. Rarely do altcoins meet so many of my screening criteria simultaneously:

• Strong narrative with a tangible business model.
• Demonstrated real-world adoption, including by non-crypto traditional enterprises.
• A clear path for token value capture.

Regarding the last point: clients can purchase inference credits using USD or USDC, with 25% of SERV inference API revenue used to market buy and burn SERV tokens. Furthermore, the official team has stated that 25% of Build business revenue, 25% of Launchpad liquidity pool trading fees, and 25% of enterprise-grade/B2B integration revenue will also be allocated to buybacks and burns.

While all this sounds incredibly promising, my only concern is the somewhat elevated level of public discussion surrounding the project, which can sometimes be a red flag in investing. Nevertheless, I am willing to hold it and participate in its journey.

[IMAGE-PLACEHOLDER-1]

2. Real World Assets (RWA): Credit and Tokenized Stocks

This is likely another topic that will be extensively discussed, perhaps to the point of exhaustion, much like AI and RWA dominated conversations last year, occasionally interspersed with privacy concepts.

2a: Morpho

In the realm of credit tokenization and various interest-bearing assets, it’s now widely acknowledged that $MORPHO is a dominant leader in the space. While opinions may vary regarding specific markets being built by curators, this doesn’t detract from its overall standing. Notably, Morpho secured investment from Apollo in February and recently completed a new funding round led by a16z, Paradigm, and Ribbit.

Currently, the dynamics of the MORPHO token are an open secret, with no need for obfuscation: an over-the-counter (OTC) transaction, internally approved and funded by the team, will not directly impact secondary market prices. However, if the terms of these (currently semi-public) transactions are as favorable as they appear, the market’s attention to the token suggests future changes are possible. Holding it may evolve beyond merely being a trophy or badge acquired alongside another trade, gaining more substantial significance.

2b: Backpack Securities

Another token within the RWA sector that warrants close attention is $BP (hopefully, this isn’t me calling a local top after quietly enjoying a significant surge).

While I haven’t personally used their exchange (nor am I particularly interested in doing so), it’s evident that their tokenization efforts are gaining considerable traction. With a circulating market cap still under $100 million, this token possesses significant upside potential.

It’s crucial to emphasize that Backpack is more than just an exchange or a wallet.

Backpack Securities is a legitimate brokerage that enables bidirectional tokenization of your held assets and supports bidirectional transfers with other brokerages. While shareholder-related functionalities are still under development, they are expected to launch soon. Despite my reservations about the team, the bullish case for this project is remarkably clear.

The Solana ecosystem, in particular, has been awaiting a true breakout winner for some time, beyond recent successes like JTO (and JTX). This project, once again, perfectly aligns with multiple criteria on my checklist.

Moreover, now is an opportune moment to capture the spotlight, as many other so-called “tokenization” projects are essentially peddling ephemeral multi-layered synthetic junk or hyping grand Pre-IPO visions that ultimately deliver little to no value.

2c: Other Projects to Watch

With reverse takeovers in traditional finance rapidly progressing, $CEPT under Securitize is clearly a crucial bellwether to monitor.

Finally, I want to give a strong endorsement to Variational: this exchange is truly excellent. In fact, due to its extensive range of trading pairs, it’s currently my preferred platform for short-term daily trading. They have recently begun integrating RWA assets. While the current scale of assets offered isn’t vast, and bid-ask spreads can sometimes be less than ideal, this undoubtedly further enriches its already comprehensive asset coverage.

I am a big fan of Variational (and accumulating points is an added bonus).

Perhaps $PLUME could also be added to the RWA sector. It appears they are finally finding their footing, making good progress in business development (e.g., recent integrations with GRVT, Bybit, etc.), and their chart could be forming a nice rounded bottom, which we’ll watch closely.

3. Space-Themed Stocks and New Nasdaq 100 Additions

I’ll keep this section brief, as I’ve previously outlined the core thesis.

SpaceX is gaining significant momentum. $RKLB (Rocket Lab) has long served as its shadow stock/beta asset, and it was even recently included in the Nasdaq 100 index.

Historically, over the past five years, new Nasdaq 100 inclusions have, on average, outperformed QQQ (the Nasdaq 100 ETF) by approximately 37% in the 120 days prior to official inclusion. Conversely, in the 120 days following official inclusion, their performance consistently lags QQQ, often accompanied by an absolute price decline.

Due to the additional catalyst provided by SpaceX, RKLB previously became an extreme case of outperformance. Therefore, I anticipate it will also become an extreme example of underperformance post-inclusion.

My purchased puts are finally in the money, and I’ve established a separate short position. I’ve searched for other equally perfect candidates to complement this “sell the SpaceX news” short thesis, but it’s hard to find anything better.

Another stock I’m closely monitoring is $CRWV. While unrelated to SpaceX, like RKLB, it’s another new addition to the index, officially joining on June 22nd, and it has also been a highly favored stock by retail investors this cycle.

[IMAGE-PLACEHOLDER-2]

4. Finally: Crypto NeoBanks

Following the Plasma One (P1) announcement, $XPL experienced an incredibly rapid surge, which in turn boosted several smaller “crypto neo-bank” tokens, though it wasn’t a universal uplift across all projects.

Personally, while I benefited from and am a fervent supporter of the XPL surge, I lack sufficient conviction to believe this will translate into broad market buying for the entire neo-bank sector. Consequently, I will not be opening any new positions in this narrative (beyond my currently locked XPL, nor do I plan to add to existing positions).

I quite like their bank cards and might even register for a paid plan.

Recently, I’ve been experimenting between P1 and EtherFi, but I’ve largely settled on P1, primarily due to its significantly smoother user experience. Its benefits are also superior.

However, now that EtherFi offers 0 fees on Euro spending, and P1’s 3% cashback is transitioning to a paid subscription model, both projects (and their respective tokens) present compelling arguments and merit individual consideration.

---

(The above content is an authorized excerpt and reprint from our partner PANews. Original Article Link)