Bernstein Declares Bitcoin Has ‘Likely Bottomed Out’ Amid Geopolitical Turmoil, Maintains Bullish Outlook

In the wake of heightened geopolitical tensions and significant energy price fluctuations, Bitcoin recently experienced a notable dip, briefly falling below the critical $70,000 mark. However, leading Wall Street brokerage Bernstein offers a compelling counter-narrative, asserting that this latest pullback shows signs of having “likely bottomed out.” Analysts at Bernstein characterize the current market dynamics as a profound correction within an ongoing bull market, rather than the onset of a new structural collapse. Despite short-term market sensitivities to Middle East developments, oil prices, and broader risk asset sentiment, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience compared to traditional assets like gold and equities.

In their latest research report to clients, Bernstein analysts conveyed a strong conviction that Bitcoin’s price trajectory “looks to have bottomed.” Even as prices momentarily breached the $70,000 threshold, the firm maintains that Bitcoin’s overall performance during this period of market turbulence has remained superior to that of gold and conventional stock markets.

“We believe Bitcoin has bottomed out and is now moving higher,” stated Gautam Chhugani, a Bernstein analyst, in the report.

Bernstein’s long-term perspective remains unshaken by recent short-term volatility. The firm reiterates its ambitious price target for Bitcoin, forecasting $150,000 by the end of 2026, with an anticipated cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027. This steadfast outlook is underpinned by the belief that the market has undergone a sufficiently deep cleansing, positioning it closer to a cyclical bottom than the beginning of a new bear market.

Market Rebound Signals Renewed Confidence

While Bitcoin’s price did momentarily dip below $70,000, it has since recovered, trading around $70,741.84 at the time of writing. This swift rebound suggests robust buying interest at lower price points, lending further credence to Bernstein’s “bottomed out” hypothesis. Should Bitcoin successfully sustain its position above the $70,000 level, it would significantly bolster market confidence that the current correction phase is nearing its conclusion. Conversely, a renewed breach could prompt a retest of lower support zones.

Bernstein highlights several key indicators supporting their optimistic view. Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a substantial $2.2 billion in inflows, effectively reversing the year-to-date net outflows of $364 million. These ETFs now command a significant $90 billion in assets under management, holding approximately 6.1% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply. Furthermore, analysts point to the behavior of long-term holders as a crucial structural support. Data from Glassnode indicates that 60% of the Bitcoin supply has remained dormant for over a year, signaling strong conviction among long-term investors. Impressively, Bitcoin has also outperformed gold by 25% since the onset of the Iran conflict, showcasing its superior risk-adjusted returns in volatile environments.

From Bernstein’s analytical framework, the market’s current focus extends beyond merely whether Bitcoin will reclaim its previous highs. Instead, the critical question revolves around whether this sharp decline has effectively completed the necessary deleveraging and emotional capitulation. The analysts’ unwavering commitment to their $150,000 target underscores their continued confidence in the fundamental structure of the current bull market, viewing recent price declines as a severe, yet ultimately healthy, correction within the broader cycle.