On-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant has issued a cautionary report, highlighting that despite sustained institutional capital inflows, the overall market buying remains sluggish, with Bitcoin’s spot demand currently in a state of “deep contraction.” However, the firm suggests that a de-escalation of geopolitical risks could pave the way for a Bitcoin rebound, potentially pushing its price into the “71,500 USD to 81,200 USD” range.
Institutional Buying Struggles Against Overwhelming Selling Pressure
CryptoQuant’s analysis reveals a concerning trend: as of the end of March this year, Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand registered a negative “63,000 BTC.” This figure starkly indicates that the market’s selling pressure continues to far outweigh the current buying interest.
While Bitcoin ETFs and ‘Strategy’ entities have shown increased accumulation, their buying power has proven insufficient to counteract the broader selling pressure from other market participants. CryptoQuant observed that the ETF sector cumulatively acquired approximately 50,000 Bitcoins last month, marking a new high since October 2025. Similarly, ‘Strategy’ portfolios added around 44,000 Bitcoins during the same period.
However, CryptoQuant underscores a critical point: “Despite the acceleration in institutional buying, the total apparent demand continues to shrink. This suggests that the selling momentum from retail investors and other market participants is currently overwhelming the impact of institutional accumulation.”
This persistent contraction in demand, evident since late November 2025, signals that the overall market is likely still navigating a “Distribution phase”—a period where assets typically shift from concentrated holdings to a more dispersed ownership.
Whales Turn Net Sellers, Signaling Structural Market Weakness
A particularly noteworthy development is the shift among “whales”—entities holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoins. This influential cohort has transitioned into “net sellers,” with their collective Bitcoin holdings steadily decreasing. Over the past year alone, these major holders have shed a significant 188,000 Bitcoins.
CryptoQuant’s data indicates that after accumulating over 200,000 Bitcoins in 2024, these whales began reducing their positions from mid-2025, accelerating their offloading activity between late 2025 and early 2026. Analysts commented:
“The 365-day simple moving average for whale holdings remains on a downward trend, confirming that this selling pressure represents a structural adjustment rather than a transient phenomenon. Historically, sustained net selling by whales has often coincided with prolonged periods of price weakness. Current data suggests that this selling pressure remains a primary structural headwind for the market.”
Meanwhile, medium-sized holders—those possessing 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins—while still net accumulators on an annual basis, have seen their buying enthusiasm significantly diminish. In November 2025, the year-over-year change in their holdings approached 1 million Bitcoins, but this figure has now dwindled to 429,000, representing a reduction of over 60%.
Further compounding the picture, the “Coinbase Premium Index,” which gauges U.S. buying interest, has largely remained negative recently, even when Bitcoin’s price dipped into the $65,000 to $70,000 range. CryptoQuant interprets this as a clear signal that U.S. investors “have not yet returned to the market in significant numbers,” aligning with the observed contraction in on-chain demand.
Short-Term Rebound Potential Hinges on Geopolitical De-escalation
Despite the prevailing demand weakness, CryptoQuant offers a glimmer of hope. The firm suggests that if the broader macroeconomic environment improves, particularly with a de-escalation of tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict, Bitcoin could still experience a short-term rebound. This rally could challenge the key resistance zone between $71,500 and $81,200.
CryptoQuant analysts elaborate: “A softening of geopolitical tensions would act as a crucial bullish catalyst in the near term, potentially triggering a relief rally that could push Bitcoin towards the lower end of the $71,500 range. Should this buying momentum persist, the next significant resistance level would be around $81,200, identified as the ‘trader realized price’—a level that previously capped upside during the January 2026 bear market rebound.”
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