Bitcoin Rally Under Threat: CryptoQuant Flags ‘Relief Selling’ Pressure

Bitcoin’s recent impressive rally appears poised for a significant challenge. A new report from CryptoQuant highlights a confluence of on-chain indicators flashing warning signs, suggesting that long-dormant “relief selling pressure” is awakening. Many investors who have been holding onto their depreciated assets, enduring prolonged periods of being “underwater,” are now seeing Bitcoin’s price approach their original cost basis. This could prompt them to offload their holdings to break even, potentially creating a formidable headwind for further upward momentum.

Bitcoin had surged past the $76,000 mark on April 14, setting a new high since early February of this year. According to CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, in a report published on Wednesday, this price surge was primarily driven by three key factors: a preceding undervaluation of the asset, a temporary de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, and a weakening US dollar.

Moreno further noted that while Bitcoin’s price has since retreated to around the $75,000 level, it is continuously testing what he refers to as the “on-chain realized price” for traders – essentially, the average cost at which investors acquired their Bitcoin. This critical level is estimated to be approximately $76,800.

He elaborated that this threshold historically acts as a crucial resistance point in bear markets. Past trends indicate that whenever the price rebounds to this zone, investors nearing their breakeven point often opt to cash out, triggering substantial “relief selling pressure” that tends to cap further upward price movements.

Moreno pointed to a similar scenario that unfolded in January 2026, where Bitcoin encountered significant resistance and subsequently pulled back after rallying to a comparable price range. He cautioned:

“If selling pressure continues to accumulate from current price levels, a similar script could play out again. Should the overhead resistance prove insurmountable, then $67,600 will emerge as the primary short-term support line.”

Concurrently with the rising price, a substantial volume of Bitcoin has begun flowing into exchanges. The report reveals that hourly Bitcoin inflows have surged to 11,000 BTC, marking the highest record observed since late December 2025. This metric is considered a short-term cautionary signal, as investors typically transfer assets from cold storage to exchanges when preparing to sell for profit or to cut losses. Moreno cited a parallel situation in March of this year: at that time, hourly Bitcoin inflows to exchanges reached 9,000 BTC, with 63% originating from large deposits, which was subsequently followed by a short-term price correction.

Further data analysis indicates that this recent influx is predominantly driven by “whale” investors. Moreno explained that the average quantity of Bitcoin deposited per transaction into exchanges has surged to 2.25 BTC, registering a new daily high since July 2024. Notably, Binance alone witnessed individual transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC. Moreno warned that such patterns have historically preceded significant price reversals. For instance, before Bitcoin’s sharp decline from $100,000 to $60,000 in January of this year, the average single deposit amount also approached 2 BTC.

Moreover, the proportion of large deposits has dramatically increased, skyrocketing from under 10% to over 40% within just a few days. Historical data suggests that once the share of large deposits surpasses the 40% mark, it is typically accompanied by an intensification of short-term selling pressure.

While selling pressure is clearly emerging, it has not yet reached its peak. Currently, daily realized profits – the total amount of profit taken by investors selling their holdings – stand at approximately $500 million. This figure remains below the $1 billion threshold, which in bear market conditions often symbolizes widespread profit-taking.

Summarizing the market outlook, Julio Moreno stated:

“If Bitcoin manages to firmly establish itself above $76,000, and especially if it pushes further to challenge the traders’ realized price of $76,800, then daily realized profits are highly likely to accelerate and potentially breach the $1 billion mark. This scenario would undoubtedly trigger an even larger wave of selling, significantly increasing the probability of this current rally stalling or even reversing into a sharp downturn.”